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In 1972, analysts at Shell Oil circulated a series of novel predictions among executives at the petroleum giant. These predictions and their accompanying response plans were unconventional in content and form: they recommended preparation for a mid-decade energy crisis that no one else was anticipating. Following the subsequent energy shocks of the 1970s, this early implementation of an organizational forecasting technique known as scenario planning helped Shell emerge from the decade as one of the most successful companies of the era.1 The lesson for other organizations was that advance planning, often for potentially divergent futures, might support improved responses to, and improved outcomes from, a variety of developments or crises.
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